AGP Executive Report

Canada–U.S. Trade War: The U.S. is set to ban a broad range of Canadian alcohol, motorcycles and dairy starting Sept. 29, after Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20B of U.S. goods took effect—raising new pressure on cross-border supply chains and political fallout for both sides. Energy Markets: Brent crude pushed above $100 a barrel as Middle East tensions intensified, with fears that attacks could disrupt oil flows via the Red Sea and raise shipping risk for global trade. Rail & Manufacturing: Ottawa is moving ahead with major VIA Rail fleet renewal and made-in-Canada passenger rail car production tied to Alstom, as the country leans on domestic supply chains amid tariff uncertainty. Aviation & Security Procurement: Canada’s GlobalEye surveillance aircraft deal is under scrutiny after reporting that Ottawa lacked full confidence the platform met operational needs without modifications. Fintech Compliance: AXON says its Canadian entity is registered with FINTRAC as a Money Services Business, supporting its build-out of financial infrastructure.

Canada-U.S. Trade War: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs kicked in Tuesday on about $20B of U.S. goods, with Prime Minister Mark Carney saying Ottawa is moving to reduce reliance on the U.S. while bracing for Trump’s next move. Cost Pressure: Economists warn the counter-tariffs could feed through to higher prices for Canadians, even for some domestically made products, as businesses absorb costs or pass them on. Aviation in the Crosshairs: Trump renewed threats to block Bombardier aircraft sales in the U.S. unless the company builds in America, rattling the aerospace supply chain on both sides of the border. Transit Update: Transit Windsor completed an $8.1M East End bus terminal, shifting services from Tecumseh Mall to a city-owned, purpose-built site. Fuel Relief: The federal fuel excise tax relief was extended to Jan. 31, 2027, with a phased rate change after that. Infrastructure Disruption (U.S.): Idaho plans Sept. 9 bridge work on US-95 near Culdesac Canyon, with overnight closures Sept. 14–16.

Canada–U.S. Trade War Escalates: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs kicked in Tuesday on about C$27.6B (US$20B) of U.S. imports, hitting steel/aluminum and dairy (including cheese), plus electronics, furniture and appliances, with rates 15% to 50% as talks remain stalled. Aviation Shockwave: The tariff fight is also spilling into aerospace, with Trump again threatening to block Bombardier sales in the U.S. unless the company builds in America. Supply Chain Risk: A global shipping group says maritime rules are eroding as wars and a shadow fleet expand, warning routes are becoming “instruments of leverage” that can fragment supply chains. Aviation Safety Update: Investigators recovered black box recorders from an Amazon Prime Air cargo crash in Miami that killed five and injured others. Mining & Jobs: Almonty Korea Tungsten says it expanded staffing at the Sangdong tungsten mine to 133 workers as redevelopment nears full operation. Energy Watch: Oil stays near $100 despite Middle East disruptions, with alternative routes and supply offsets limiting the spike.

U.S.-Canada Trade Flashpoint (Aviation): Donald Trump escalated his trade war with Canada by demanding a ban on Bombardier aircraft sales in the U.S. unless the company “build here,” calling its jets “aren’t good enough” and citing alleged revenue dependence on American buyers. Retaliation Countdown (Cross-border Trade): Canada’s counter-tariffs are set to take effect Tuesday on hundreds of U.S. goods, with some duties as high as 50%, aiming to match Washington’s “dollar-for-dollar” approach. Supply Chain Pressure (Customs/Logistics): Customs brokers say the tariff swings are forcing rapid pivots in how shipments are classified and declared at the border, adding friction for everything from food and wood products to pharmaceuticals. Air Quality Watch (Wildfire Smoke): The UN’s WMO warned extreme wildfire smoke events have tripled since the 1990s, with northern Canada among areas seeing above-average PM2.5 in recent years. Defense Trade (Canada Abroad): Canada is sending hundreds of delegates to Poland’s MSPO to promote defense and aerospace partnerships, as officials push for more resilient supply chains.

VIA Rail Fleet Renewal: Ottawa is moving ahead with a landmark C$4.7B investment to renew VIA Rail’s long-distance passenger car fleet, with new cars built in Canada after decades of production abroad—an industrial boost for Thunder Bay and Quebec manufacturing. Trade War Pressure: Trade watchers warn Canada should brace for “pain” as retaliatory tariffs are set to take effect and an American response is expected, with talks still stalled since Aug. 21. Airport Air Monitoring Dispute: Dorval residents are pressing for answers after Montreal-Trudeau’s air quality station (Station 66) was shut down due to airport construction, raising questions about where monitoring will resume and how pollution is measured. School Safety & Traffic: In Mississauga and Montreal West, parents and advocates are pushing to reduce car congestion around schools—calling for “School Streets” pilots and a permanent crossing guard near the train station after multiple student hits. Aviation Safety Watch: A deadly Amazon Prime Air cargo crash at Miami International—runway overrun, vehicles struck, and at least five deaths—has triggered FAA and NTSB investigations, a reminder for carriers and ground ops. Arctic & Shipping Stakes: EU leaders are updating Arctic policy as melting ice opens new sea routes, while security and raw-material competition intensify.

Made-in-Canada Rail Push: Ottawa is set to spend C$4.7B on 313 VIA Rail passenger cars built in Canada, with Alstom work in Thunder Bay and Quebec—a major boost for domestic rail manufacturing as U.S.-Canada trade tensions simmer. Cross-Border Trade Shock: Canada’s countertariffs are scheduled to hit Sept. 8 on about C$28B of U.S. goods, with charts highlighting the heaviest impacts on key U.S. swing states and industries that rely on cross-border freight. Aviation Safety Watch: RCMP say two people died in a crash near Mount McDougall in Kananaskis Country, while elsewhere a Amazon-contracted cargo plane overran a runway at Miami International, triggering major airport shutdowns. Public Safety—Lithium Fires: Toronto reported two separate e-bike battery fires hours apart, reminding residents to use certified chargers and safe storage for lithium-ion devices. Arctic/Logistics Context: The week also included broader signals of shifting routes and disruptions tied to global shipping and airspace risk, underscoring how quickly logistics plans can change.

Rail Access Fight: Saint-Lambert, Que. residents are pushing back against Via Rail plans that could add a stop near Montreal Metropolitan Airport (MET), fearing it could eventually sideline their downtown station. Aviation Disruption: British Airways says a technical error caused an emergency slide to deploy while a Boeing 787 was being serviced in Montreal, delaying flights by about 2.5 hours with no injuries reported. Arctic & Marine Tourism: Churchill, Man. is spotlighting beluga-whale kayaking and paddleboarding as a second wildlife draw beyond polar bears. Autonomous Trucking Push: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 backs large-scale driverless freight trials, aiming to equip a share of its truck fleet with autonomous-driving tech. Energy & Shipping Tensions: The U.S. says it destroyed three Iranian oil tankers after missile attacks on naval vessels, while Iran’s IRGC claims further strikes tied to Hormuz-area actions. Mining Finance Reality Check: Canada’s minerals sector shows capital spending is recovering but still tighter, with lenders demanding stronger construction, permitting, and cost assumptions. Infrastructure Cost Warning: A new opinion argues Canada pays far more than peers to build major projects, pricing private capital out. Trade Backlash Poll: A Nanos survey finds most Canadians support dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs against the U.S. Copper Exploration Context: New drill results across Alaska, Arizona, Peru and Canada are drawing attention, but analysts stress intercepts don’t automatically mean new mines or near-term supply gains.

VIA Rail Fleet Renewal: Ottawa is moving ahead with a landmark $4.7B plan to build 313 new VIA Rail passenger cars in Canada, with Alstom manufacturing in Thunder Bay and Quebec—aimed at bringing long-distance rail car production back home. Highway Safety Push: Columbia River-Revelstoke MLA Scott McInnis is pressing for urgent fixes on the dangerous Highway 1 stretch between Field and Sicamous, after a meeting was set for Sept. 23. Air Cargo Route Oddity: North Star Air is bringing an ATR 72-500F freighter-converted aircraft into its northern Canada network after a long multi-stop ferry flight from the Philippines to Thunder Bay. Labour Day Travel Pressure: AAA expects heavier traffic and higher holiday costs, with the busiest driving periods Thursday through Monday. Quebec Courts on AI: Quebec’s courts issued guidance limiting generative AI in judging—supporting tasks are allowed, but judges must keep reasoning and deliberation fully human. Arctic/Defence Tech Training: Niagara College partnered with CERRA to build a Canada-wide platform for defence and public-safety robotics and drone skills.

Canada–U.S. Tariffs: Canada’s retaliatory duties on 700+ U.S. products worth about C$27.6B in annual imports are set to start Tuesday, with vehicle-related goods hit hard (15%–50%, including 25% on trailers and semi-trailers) as both sides signal little appetite for talks. Port Expansion Under Scrutiny: Vancouver’s Roberts Bank Terminal 2 expansion could be fast-tracked as a “project of national interest,” triggering a 30-day consultation—while environmental groups warn expedited reviews may bypass protections for at-risk species. Labour Day Disruptions (Hamilton): Hamilton municipal and transit services posted holiday closures and modified schedules, including closures for HSR customer services (phone line still open) and multiple city facilities and programs. Great Lakes Conservation: New research suggests lake sturgeon may live up to 400 years, reshaping recovery timelines for a species still listed as at risk in Ontario and the Great Lakes. Cross-Border Naming Fight: Upstate New York border towns are bracing for fallout from the Lake Ontario “Lake America” rename amid broader Canada–U.S. tariff tensions. Energy Shock: Russia’s refining outages and diesel export cuts—plus Middle East disruptions—are pushing U.S. diesel and gasoline prices to record highs heading into the Labor Day weekend.

Rail Manufacturing Push: Ottawa’s $4.7B VIA Rail deal with Alstom will bring long-distance passenger car production back to Canada, with work split between Thunder Bay and Quebec/Kingston—an economic win for the region and a major step in fleet renewal. Highway Safety & Funding: In Thunder Bay, NOMA says highway safety needs urgent federal-provincial action after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit, as families continue to push for Trans-Canada Highway upgrades. Maritime/Shipping Finance: Star Bulk Carriers moves toward a parallel listing on Euronext Athens and launches an equity offering in Greece, signaling continued capital-market activity for dry-bulk shipping. Cross-Border Disruption: Rainbow Bridge on the U.S. side is closed after a vehicle crashed into a duty-free shop, with a staff member injured and investigators checking whether a medical issue played a role. Public Safety & Enforcement: Brockville police report a traffic stop that led to handgun, meth and fentanyl seizures and multiple charges. Labour Market (Local): Brantford-Brant employment rose for a seventh straight month in August, with hiring concentrated in transportation/warehousing and manufacturing. Animal Transport Watch: Shedd Aquarium says two more belugas have died, bringing recent losses to three, while teams monitor the remaining whales.

VIA Rail Modernization: Alstom has signed a C$4.7B deal with VIA Rail to design, build and support 313 new long-distance passenger cars, with work split across Quebec (design/engineering and carbody) and Thunder Bay, plus 15 years of technical support—aimed at replacing VIA’s aging fleet and expanding service across major Canadian routes. Cross-Border Rail Disruption: GO Transit commuters in Niagara say Metrolinx’s temporary GO service cuts and bus replacements are worsening delays, with riders reporting near-hour late trains and longer commutes while construction work continues. Trade Talks Watch: Prime Minister Mark Carney says Ottawa is ready to negotiate a durable, mutually beneficial Canada–U.S. trade deal, while continuing to build its economy and diversify ties beyond Washington. Supply Chain & Manufacturing: Canada’s push to keep more rail production at home is framed as a jobs-and-industries move amid U.S. tariff pressure. Security & Mobility: A Canadian intern accused of espionage in Belgium is tied to a multi-department damage assessment, underscoring how mobility and international postings can intersect with logistics and information access.

VIA Rail Push for Domestic Rolling Stock: Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a $4.7B investment to renew VIA Rail’s long-distance fleet, with 313 passenger cars built and assembled in Canada for the first time in 40 years, including final assembly in Thunder Bay, Ontario and La Pocatière, Québec, plus long-term support from Alstom. Trade Enforcement at the Border: The CBSA opened investigations into alleged dumping and subsidizing of truck and bus tires from China, after complaints from the Canadian Retread Manufacturers Association and Michelin. Air Canada Network Growth: Air Canada unveiled major summer 2027 expansion, adding routes to Dubrovnik (from Montreal), plus Guangzhou, Oslo, Shannon, Basel and a new Nice service, using A321XLRs and extra widebody capacity. Clean Power Infrastructure: Canada broke ground on the North Coast Transmission Line in B.C., aiming to expand clean electricity availability, unlock industrial projects, and cut emissions. Alberta Solar Waste Rules: Alberta launched a solar panel recycling program starting Oct. 1 and banned panels from landfills, funded by a $14 fee per panel. Freshwater Fish Passage Tool: The Canadian Wildlife Federation released the CANFISHPASS app to help Canadians map aquatic barriers using GPS and photos. Canada-U.S. Trade Pressure in Numbers: Statistics Canada reported July’s trade surplus narrowed to C$769M as exports fell and imports rose, with the U.S. still dominating export share.

Central Bank Resilience: The Dutch central bank (DNB) says it moved 86 tonnes of gold out of the U.S. and Canada to London, citing “increasing geopolitical unrest” and faster crisis readiness. DNB says bullion at the Bank of England is easier to trade in stress scenarios, and the transfer was carried out between March and August 2026. Canada–U.S. Trade Tensions: Prime Minister Mark Carney says U.S. negotiators pushed terms that would have left core Canadian industries “subsidiaries” of U.S. firms or “wound down” them, prompting Canada to suspend talks. Work Permit Exemptions: Canada released guidance listing foreign worker categories that may enter and work without a work permit, including several transportation-related roles (like crew and aviation accident investigators) and other professional groups. Freight Security in Europe: The EU is weighing sanctions and visa steps after a failed drone attack on Germany’s Leipzig/Halle airport, a major freight hub supporting Ukraine. Steel Supply Chain: Algoma Steel says it resumed electric arc furnace production at its Lake Superior Power site under interim arrangements after an outage, while working to restore full generating capacity.

Fuel Relief Extended: Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne says Canada will keep the federal gasoline and diesel excise tax holiday going until Jan. 31, 2027, then reintroduce it at 50% for Feb.–Mar. before returning to full rates April 1; the pause also covers the 4-cent-per-litre aviation fuel excise tax, with the government estimating billions in savings. Port Electrification Deal: Kempower and DP World signed a framework agreement to standardize and supply DC fast-charging across DP World terminals in Canada (Vancouver, Fraser Surrey, Nanaimo, Prince Rupert, Saint John), supporting electrification of port service vehicles and container-handling equipment. Aviation Infrastructure Funding: Saskatchewan’s Wollaston Lake Airport received $11.6M for runway, taxiway and apron rehabilitation plus upgrades to wind indicators, beacons, lighting and electrical gear. Music Copyright Fight: SOCAN filed a Federal Court lawsuit against U.S.-based AI music platform Suno, alleging it generated and streamed outputs that copy human-created songs without permission or compensation. Wildlife Rescue Logistics: The final six beluga whales from Marineland’s closure arrived safely in the U.S., completing the cross-border rescue of 30 belugas and four dolphins. Weather & Travel Disruption Watch: Environment Canada warned of severe thunderstorms in southern Ontario with damaging winds, heavy rain and possible tornado reports, raising road-safety concerns for commuters and freight movement. Trade Tensions Ripple: Trump again floated renaming the Strait of Hormuz as the “Trump Strait,” while Canada’s fuel-tax relief extension underscores how Middle East-linked energy costs are still driving policy.

Arctic Strategy: The EU is sharpening its Arctic policy as ice retreat reshapes navigation and resource access, while Russia and China deepen their presence—Brussels is now mapping how to balance economic interests, environmental risk, and security links with Canada and other partners. SAF Tech for Canada: Axens was picked by Expander Energy to supply FT Liquid Upgrading technology for Canadian SAF and renewable diesel projects, with early deployments targeted at facilities near Calgary and in northern B.C. Churchill Grain Restart: Manitoba’s Port of Churchill is loading its first grain shipments in six years, moving about 30,000 tonnes of Saskatchewan durum wheat via the rebuilt Hudson Bay Railway, with officials aiming for more cargoes in 2026 and 2027. Metro Vancouver Tariff Pressure: Federal funding is flowing to a dozen Metro Vancouver manufacturers as U.S. tariffs and cheap imports squeeze sales; one aluminum maker says non-market-economy imports have surged while it pivots toward Canadian customers. Airport Security Concern: A University of Waterloo student is suspected of espionage after admitting to taking photos inside airport facilities in Toronto and Chicago, according to U.S. authorities. Airline Expansion: Ibom Air took delivery of a new Airbus A220-300 in Nigeria, pushing its fleet to 10 aircraft and nearing 5 million passengers. CPTPP Update: The UK gained full CPTPP access after Canada ratified its accession, expanding tariff-free trade and longer business stays in Canada for eligible visitors. Trade War Commentary: A Canadian grocery-focused op-ed warns retaliation tariffs can still raise checkout prices, arguing tariffs are taxes that hit consumers even when political goals are framed as “punishment.”

Arctic Shipping Revival: The Port of Churchill resumed grain exports for the first time in six years, loading about 30,000 tonnes of Saskatchewan durum for Europe and setting up two more vessel departures this season. Aerospace Supply Chain: Bombardier will acquire MHI Canada Aerospace assets in Mississauga, bringing about 750 employees and key aerostructure work in-house to support potential private-jet production increases. Highway Disruptions: Trans-Canada Highway east of Sicamous was shut after a crash, with detours for non-commercial traffic and commercial vehicles urged to reroute. Rail Safety: Alberta RCMP detailed a train-semi collision near Irvine involving pigs; the semi driver was taken to hospital and the train crew was uninjured. Urban Mobility: Ontario is moving ahead with Toronto bike-lane removals after a court win, starting with a Bloor Street segment east of Islington. Transit Operations: Metrolinx warned of UP Express and Kitchener Line service impacts due to heat-related “sun kink” track concerns. Trade Pressure: Western municipal leaders met in Edmonton to push for tariff exemptions, warning higher construction costs could delay local infrastructure. Defence Drones: Canada is leaning on homegrown drone capability for Arctic surveillance and cargo delivery amid tougher security conditions.